To Taipei en route PoK; What makes India Wait in taking over Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir?

 

What makes India Wait in taking over Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir?

 

On October 27, 2022, Indian Defence Minister Mr. Rajnath Singh reiterated India’s resolve to take back Pakistan-occupied Kashmir from Pakistan. He also expressed his deep concern against the high-handedness of Pakistan authorities against the Kashmiris there. He said this while addressing army jawans on Shaurya Diwas, a day to commemorate annexing of Jammu and Kashmir to Indian Union on 27 October 1947, a day after Maharaja Hari Singh signed the instrument of Accession with the government of India.

 He thanked and described the Indian Army as the greatest in the world and with their valour and commitment towards the motherland, India can easily finish the second phase of annexing Kashmir to India. The first phase of this mission was the abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019, and with the full integration, Northern Areas and Gilgit Baltistan will become part of India.

 Significance of this Statement.

In history, we can see several instances where these kinds of statements were made but now the world sees them differently. His statement was heard well across all world forums, and they consider this as a real threat of annexation and may happen at any time. This statement is only a test dose to understand the possible reactions across the world.

 

Adding to it, Northern Army Commander Lt General Upendra Dwivedi backed the defence minister by stating that the army is fully prepared and is waiting for the orders. 

 Interesting to note is that no countries other than China and some member countries of OIC do not express any kind of concerns. This tells us loudly how the world will react to it.

 What’s astonishing was the reaction from Pakistan itself. It took many days for the Pakistan establishment to even comment on this. Newly appointed army chief of Pakistan Lt. General Asim Munir expressed his deep anguish and warned of serious repercussions of any misadventure.  

 Problems in Pakistan.

Experts consider why Pakistan is not reacting as imagined because of the turbulence within. The economy is in disarray. Foreign reserves are depleting. Further political instability, high rate of inflation, rising terrorist activities from the Taliban and Baluch Liberation Council, and worrying foreign debt made Pakistan in a vulnerable situation, and cannot even think of waging a war against India.

 

Demography of PoK

PoK comprises 5134 square miles or 13,297 square kilometres of fertile land almost equal to the demography of countries like Denmark, Holland, or Austria. The topography of the land is mainly hilly and mountainous with abundant water bodies. 

 River Indus is flowing to Pakistan through PoK. This river makes the land fertile and provides a wider scope for installing hydroelectric power stations and the promotion of tourism.

 Gilgit and Baltistan, a real paradise in earth

This land is a true gift of nature, the valleys, mountains, and scenic beauty is astonishing and can attract a wide chunk of travellers, tourists, and adventurists. Once planned carefully, it can take the tourism industry to a new level, capable of providing jobs for the residents there.

 

Most of the population is Muslim and speaks both Kashmiri and Urdu. Forestry, livestock, and agriculture is the major source of income.

 

 

Advantage India

By annexing PoK, India is set to get the following advantages.

• It will give direct access to the countries of Russia and Afghanistan.
• It will increase economic opportunities, particularly in tourism.
• India’s long cherished dream of building the TAPI pipeline (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline) to transfer natural gas will become reality.
• No dependence on Iran for accessing Afghanistan or the Central Asian market help boost exporters from India.
• Reduce militancy and terror attacks inside India. 
• Most of the militant launch pads are in the terrains of PoK. These terrains become a safe haven for terrorists.
• For a long, the life of Kashmiris was miserable and was divided by both India and Pakistan. This annexure will reunite these families. It will become the second most important unification ever happened in the history of mankind, after Germany.

 Challenges India may have to face

• Integrating the people of PoK into India may be a big challenge as a part of the population does not wish to join India.
• India may face the wrath of western countries.  The relationship with them is already strained due to India’s decision to continue the import of Oil from Russia. 
• European countries oppose this move as they impose sanctions on Russia due to the Russian-Ukraine war. Some European countries may take it as an opportunity to take India head-on. India may also have to face UN sanctions, though Russia may help India with its veto power in the UN.
• It will increase the boundary with Pakistan and China, the two countries that always try to destabilize India and are famous for intrusions. Increased boundary means an increase in security threat and expenses.  
• India’s military spending will sharply increase. 
• India is aware of the initial resistance from the people will subside after some time but still, the Indian army may require to station there for a relatively long period until the situation is normal and congenial to withdraw.
• The dismantled terrorist organizations in PoK may go deep inside Pakistan and start operating against the Indian Army.  
• Pakistan may get support and assistance from Turkey, OIC, and China.

 How China becomes a spoiler?

 China’s interest in PoK

China is considered an all-weather friend of Pakistan, though China’s support and assistance have business interests. Pakistan is the gateway for China to access the markets of Asia and Europe. 32 billion USD was the amount invested by China in CPEC that connects mainland China to the Arabian Sea through Gaddar Port. This connectivity is passing through PoK. When it comes to India, Chinese investment becomes vulnerable. For this reason, China with all its might will support Pakistan.

 This is what is worrying India. India does not want to have a confrontation with China as it will badly affect India’s economic ambitions and possible repercussions of fighting with the biggest army in the world.

 One benefit China is expected to get from India’s takeover is the reduced threat of running its operations in Pakistan. Today they were hit by constant and regular terrorist attacks in which many Chinese engineers lost their lives. India has a greater influence over Baluchistan Liberation Front. 

 aluchis for a long is fighting a bloody battle against Pakistan and Chinese hegemony. Pakistan on the other hand has become incapable of providing security to Chinese citizens and their establishments. Once India takes over PoK, BLA will become less fatal if China agrees to the terms laid by India and BLA.

 Options for China if India annex PoK

1. Support Indian Annexure, negotiate with Indian authority to safeguard its investment in CPEC, and reduce the influence of Baluchistan Liberation Army against their business interest.
2. Support Pakistan in all manners in retaining PoK with Pakistan.  

Strained Sino-Indian relations

The most likely scenario to happen from the above two options is the second one. There is a trust deficit between India and China going on for decades and will continue in the future as well. We have an unmarked and disputed border of 4000 kilometres. Because of the expansionist attitude from China, these disputes are not going to solve soon. Furthermore, Both India and China are the biggest growing economies in the world competing with each other in attracting investment. Both countries were the partners of numerous minor altercations and one war in 1962. For these reasons, China may find it easy to support Pakistan than India.

 India’s worries

If China sides with Pakistan, India will have to fight with two nuclear nations simultaneously, starting from the west to the entire north which India does not wish to happen and was always in search of a viable alternative to taking back PoK without China’s interference. India is looking for that time when China finds it difficult to help Pakistan militarily.

 China’s Invasion of Taiwan – An opportunity for India?

Taiwan becomes a viable option for India to annexure PoK. China considers Taiwan a part of Mainland China, but Taiwan thinks otherwise. They consider themselves an independent nation. Things got escalated with the visit of Nancy Pelosi, a politician and former speaker of the American Assembly to Taiwan without the consent of China. There is a fear of imminent war between China and Taiwan kickstart at any time.

 

This is in this context we should gauge the statement made by Indian Defence Minister. The reactions from the rest of the world were positive, soft, and mild. Even though China promised to support Pakistan, its tone of voice was timid. It is clear, China does not wish to have a confrontation with India now as China today is reeling under both domestic and international problems.

 Problems within China and strong Indian Government

China is continuing strict covid protocol. Roads are closed, and Industries not working. Many companies were forced to leave China. Apple is finding India as an alternative. The real estate and banking sector almost collapsed and will take years to recover. Adding to it is the acute power shortage. Rivers in China are dried due to no rain affecting power generation.  China generates about 356 GW units of power through Hydro projects till the year 2019 which accounts for 20 % of their total power generation. There is an acute shortage of electricity. Industrial units become non-functional. The whole economy is in the grip of a slowdown and may collapse at any moment. China is gradually losing the status of a production house to the world.

 On the other hand, India’s trade indices are performing better, they overtake England to become the world’s fifth-largest economy and are expected to become number three surpassing Japan and Germany very soon. India has now a stable government and it is believed the ruling government led by BJP will retain power in the next 2024 general elections as well.

 

BJP government is going strength to strength in all spheres particularly three spheres: Economics, Foreign Policy, and Social Issues. They are successful in planning and implementing several reforms for example GST and demonetization. It also put in place new laws for bankruptcy and insolvency and steps to curb red tape.

 In social matters, they successfully passed legislation regarding the abolition of article 370 which in the past was considered an impossible step to take. On foreign policy matters, India under BJP was able to garner wide support from many countries mainly America and East Asian countries. They cornered Pakistan internationally and played important role in putting Pakistan under the Grey list.  

 The recent election result in the state of Gujarat gives them immense confidence and is widely believed to retain power in the next general elections, 2024. All these factors give the ruling dispensation, and the confidence to take the extreme step of annexing PoK towards the Indian Union.

 China; the unfinished business for India.

Though India had to deal with hostile neighbors, she managed to do it very efficiently except for China. She had to fight 5 wars in the past and expect one, she decimated the opponents. 

 

The only defeat she had to face is from China which continues to occupy India’s 15,000 square miles of land in Aksai Chin. China also supported Pakistan's policy of bleeding India through thousand cuts by providing necessary arms and ammunition. It used India’s neighbours like Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Maldives and surrendered India from all fronts. On several occasions, China became a spoiler in India’s effort to become a permanent member of the UN and efforts to declare Hafiz Saeed, an international terrorist. India was looking for the right time to hit back without suffering any collateral damage.

 China-Taiwan Conflict- A blessing in disguise for India?

China considers Taiwan as a part of Mainland China and wants the rest of the world to accept it. But Taiwan is not in the mood to accept this hegemony of China. Their economy is growing better than in mainland China. Taiwan is the number one manufacturer of electronic chips and semiconductors in the world and China will take away their advances and impose strict communist ideas above their democratic policies.

 Till 1945, Taiwan was under Japanese control following the defeat of China in the Sino-Japanese war in the year 1895. In the year 1949, the Government of the Republic of China shifted its operations to this island because of the communist revolution in Mainland China. Since then, the island was governed by ROC while the mainland was governed by the People's Republic of China (PRC). The authorities in Beijing (PRC) never tried to interfere in the island governed by ROC.

 Following the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty, Japan surrendered all its rights and claims over the island to ROC. ROC signed a landmark mutual defence treaty with the United States in the year 1954. Thus, the USA become a third party to the conflict between China and Taiwan.

 China believes it will take only a few hours to annex Taiwan into China.  Nancy Pelosi’s visit becomes the immediate provocation igniting the conflict. Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the Chinese army to be prepared to invade Taiwan at any time. A new trusted intelligence report asserts China is planning to attack this island by the year ending 2023, or at the beginning of 2024. China is closely watching the outcome of the Ukraine-Russian war where the USA refused to be a part of the confrontation. This gives the Chinese government a strong stimulus that the USA will not side with Taiwan as they did with Ukraine.

 How can India take benefit from changing world order?

India knows it is difficult for America to be a mere spectator in the Sino-Taiwan conflict because of the defence treaty. America also wants to check the rising hegemony of China in the world order. India calculates the USA will join hands with Taiwan in the conflict and if it happens, China will have to face the combined might of NATO forces. The only option then China has is to withdraw its troops bordering India and deploy against the combined forces of the USA and allied countries. 

 

United Kashmir: a dream come true.

If this happens, it will be the right time for India to annex PoK to India. China will not be able to support Pakistan and Pakistan today is not capable of strong resistance giving India a long-cherished dream of uniting Kashmir and even Aksai Chin which is under Chinese control because of the 1962 India-China war.